IMD's latest outlook, issued at 2330 IST on 31 October, forecasts a stronger system with a southward landfall compared with its forecast earlier that day:
The northern end of that stretch, Narsapur, is close to where Cyclone Arnab came ashore on 28 October.
The Depression moved west-northwestwards at about 30 km/h over the six hours to 1730 IST on 31 October, when it lay over the southeast Bay of Bengal near 10.5°N, 88.6°E. That is about 960 km east-southeast of Chennai, 980 km southeast of Visakhapatnam, 1030 km southeast of Machilipatnam and 1080 km east-southeast of Ongole. IMD estimated its central pressure at 1008 hPa, with maximum sustained winds of 25 knots (about 46 km/h) gusting to 35 knots. Satellite imagery showed spiral bands forming and the cloud mass gradually organising over the previous 12 hours.
IMD expects it to become a Deep Depression by 2330 IST on 31 October, a Cyclonic Storm on 1 November and a Severe Cyclonic Storm over the westcentral Bay of Bengal on 2 November, before turning northwestwards and crossing the coast. After landfall it is forecast to weaken quickly as it moves inland across Andhra Pradesh towards Telangana.
| Time (IST) | Position | Max sustained wind | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1730, 31 Oct | 10.5°N, 88.6°E | 45-55 km/h, gusting 65 | Depression (observed) |
| 2330, 31 Oct | 10.9°N, 88.2°E | 50-60 km/h, gusting 70 | Deep Depression |
| 0530, 1 Nov | 11.3°N, 87.3°E | 60-70 km/h, gusting 80 | Cyclonic Storm |
| 1130, 1 Nov | 11.8°N, 86.3°E | 65-75 km/h, gusting 85 | Cyclonic Storm |
| 1730, 1 Nov | 12.3°N, 85.4°E | 70-80 km/h, gusting 90 | Cyclonic Storm |
| 0530, 2 Nov | 13.2°N, 83.4°E | 80-90 km/h, gusting 100 | Cyclonic Storm |
| 1730, 2 Nov | 14.3°N, 81.6°E | 90-100 km/h, gusting 110 | Severe Cyclonic Storm |
| 0530, 3 Nov | 15.4°N, 80.3°E | 100-110 km/h, gusting 120 | Severe Cyclonic Storm |
| 1730, 3 Nov | 16.6°N, 79.2°E | 70-80 km/h, gusting 90 | Cyclonic Storm |
| 0530, 4 Nov | 17.9°N, 78.1°E | 50-60 km/h, gusting 70 | Deep Depression |
| Later on 4 Nov | 19.3°N, 77.3°E | 35-45 km/h, gusting 55 | Depression |
Times are converted from IMD's UTC track chart. The table in IMD's outlook has small typing slips in its time column (its first row reads 1230 instead of 1730, and its last two rows both read 0530 on 4 November); the positions and winds above are exactly as IMD gives them.
IMD expects wind shear around the system to drop to low levels by 1 November and stay low until 3 November, and mid-level humidity to rise to about 70-75%, both of which support strengthening. It says the rate of intensification may pick up from the evening of 1 November, once the system moves west of about 85°E. Most of the models IMD uses (ECMWF, HWRF, Google DeepMind and several other AI models) now show a Cyclonic Storm or Severe Cyclonic Storm; only the GFS group keeps it as a low pressure area. All agree on the west-northwestward, then northwestward, track towards south Andhra Pradesh.
It should still be well short of Arnab's strength: the ocean heat content in its path is 60-70 kJ/cm², against about 100 kJ/cm² during Arnab, and IMD expects cooler, drier air from the northwest to hold back further strengthening. IMD rates its confidence in the track as high and in the intensity forecast as moderate to high.
IMD's latest rain and fishermen warnings date from its press release of 1425 IST on 31 October, issued before the forecast was upgraded, so check IMD's newest district warnings as well:
With a Severe Cyclonic Storm now forecast, coastal districts from Nellore to Narsapur should expect damaging winds as well as heavy rain on the night of 2 November and the morning of 3 November. Prepare now: secure loose objects, keep drinking water, medicines and a charged phone ready, and follow local authorities on evacuation. Our 72-hour cyclone checklist and safety guide for fishermen and coastal families cover what to do.
The system has not been named yet. When IMD upgrades it to a Cyclonic Storm, forecast for early on 1 November, it will be called Murasu, proposed by India. Follow it live on our Active Systems page. See also our first bulletin on this system.
This bulletin is based on the India Meteorological Department (IMD) RSMC New Delhi Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 1800 UTC (2330 IST) on 31 October 2026, based on 1200 UTC (1730 IST) observations, and the IMD press release issued at 1425 hours IST on 31 October 2026. For official warnings and forecasts, refer to mausam.imd.gov.in.