The low pressure area that IMD had been watching over the south Andaman Sea has strengthened into a Depression over the southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Andaman Sea. It formed at 1130 IST on 31 October 2026 near 10.0°N, 90.2°E, about 330 km west-southwest of Sri Vijayapuram (Port Blair), 300 km west-northwest of Car Nicobar, 1140 km east-southeast of Chennai and 1200 km southeast of Machilipatnam.
IMD estimates its central pressure at 1004 hPa, with maximum sustained winds of 25 knots (about 46 km/h) gusting to 35 knots (about 65 km/h). This is the ninth Bay of Bengal depression of 2026 (BOB 09), forming just three days after Cyclone Arnab crossed the Andhra Pradesh coast.
IMD expects the Depression to move west-northwestwards and intensify into a Deep Depression over the southeast Bay of Bengal around 2330 IST on 31 October. Still moving west-northwestwards, it is very likely to become a Cyclonic Storm over the southeast and adjoining southwest and westcentral Bay of Bengal around 1130 IST on 1 November, and to reach the westcentral Bay of Bengal near the Andhra Pradesh coast around 1730 IST on 2 November. IMD has not yet given an exact crossing point or landfall time.
IMD's forecast track shows it peaking at 45 knots (about 83 km/h), well short of Severe Cyclonic Storm strength:
| Time (IST) | Max sustained wind | Stage |
|---|---|---|
| 1130, 31 Oct | 25 kt (46 km/h) | Depression (observed) |
| 2330, 31 Oct | 30 kt (56 km/h) | Deep Depression |
| 1130, 1 Nov | 35 kt (65 km/h) | Cyclonic Storm |
| 2330, 1 Nov | 40 kt (74 km/h) | Cyclonic Storm |
| 1130, 2 Nov | 45 kt (83 km/h) | Cyclonic Storm |
| 2330, 2 Nov | 45 kt (83 km/h) | Cyclonic Storm |
| 1130, 3 Nov | 40 kt (74 km/h) | Cyclonic Storm |
| 2330, 3 Nov | 30 kt (56 km/h) | Deep Depression |
Why not stronger? IMD notes that warm seas (around 29°C), low wind shear and an active Madden-Julian Oscillation favour development, but that drier, cooler air from the northwest over the north Bay of Bengal is not supportive of higher intensification. Most models IMD uses show a Cyclonic Storm, while the GFS group keeps it as a low pressure area; all agree well on the west-northwestward track towards Andhra Pradesh. IMD rates its confidence in the track as high and in the intensity forecast as moderate to high.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into:
This system is forecast to be much weaker than Arnab, which crossed the coast as a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm at 125-135 km/h. The main danger this time is rain: extremely heavy falls are forecast over coastal Andhra Pradesh, where Arnab had already left about 2.24 lakh hectares of crops inundated or damaged, mostly in the Godavari delta. Fields, rivers and drains that are still full can flood quickly, so low-lying areas should prepare now. Our 72-hour cyclone checklist and safety guide for fishermen and coastal families cover what to do.
The system has not been named. If IMD upgrades it to a Cyclonic Storm as forecast, it will take the next name on the WMO/ESCAP North Indian Ocean list: Murasu, proposed by India, meaning “drum” in Tamil. See how cyclones are named. Follow the system live on our Active Systems page.
This bulletin is based on the India Meteorological Department (IMD) RSMC New Delhi Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 1600 hours IST on 31 October 2026 (based on 1130 IST observations, including its forecast track graphic), and the IMD press release issued at 1425 hours IST on 31 October 2026. For official warnings and forecasts, refer to mausam.imd.gov.in.